swing horizon · brief

TSLA

Tesla

$362.86

+5.14%

ConstructiveRisk OnSession Aug 21, 2026 · retrieved Aug 22, 3:10 PM · 100 sessions

PEG Score

61/ 100

A weighted summary of agreement between six observable conditions — never a probability that price will rise.

Trend Structure43· 30% weight
Momentum73· 20% weight
Relative Strength63· 20% weight
Volume Confirmation80· 10% weight
Volatility Quality49· 10% weight
Market Regime73· 10% weight

Market terrain

CLASSIFIED

Elevation

43

Trend sub-score

Slope

1.00

20D momentum

Roughness

0.55

ATR %

Peak

0.63

Relative strength

Closing price · last 100 sessions

CALCULATED
The read
CLASSIFIED

TSLA scores 61 of 100 — constructive — with neutral trend structure, accelerating momentum and relative strength that is weak versus SPY, in a risk on market regime.

Price sits +10.58% from its 20-day average, -0.82% from its 50-day and -9.62% from its 40-week. The averages are not stacked in trend order, and price has closed above its 20-day average in 35% of the last 40 sessions. That classifies trend structure as neutral.

Rate of change reads +6.02% over 5 sessions, +15.92% over 20 and -17.60% over 60. Acceleration is +1.8 pts, meaning short-term momentum is building on its prior reading, with RSI-14 at 58. Momentum classifies as accelerating.

Against SPY, TSLA is +12.3 pts over 20 sessions and -19.6 pts over 60 — weak. Volume is confirming at 1.68× the trailing 20-session average on an up day. Volatility is expanding with ATR-14 at 3.82% of price, placing risk at elevated.

The broad tape reads Risk On — SPY is above its 20-day, 50-day and 40-week averages; average 20-day change across indices is +3.6%; index readings are mostly aligned. Regime carries 10% of the score, but it sets the context every other reading is measured in.

Generated deterministically from the values above. Set ANTHROPIC_API_KEY to have a language model write this section instead. Every statement can be checked against the Signal Matrix.

What supports the read

  • 20-day rate of change +15.92%
  • Advances arriving on above-average volume
  • Broad market regime is risk on

What would weaken it

  • Moving averages are not stacked in trend order
  • Below the 50-day average by -0.82%
  • Lagging SPY by -19.6 pts over 60 sessions
  • Risk classified elevated
  • -27.26% from the 52-week high
Scenario map

Each path is described by the evidence that would characterize it — not a guess about which one happens, and not ordered by likelihood.

Continuation

Structure repairs and price reclaims its shorter averages.

  • Price holds above the 20-day average (+10.58% today)
  • Relative strength versus SPY stays at or above +12.3 pts
  • Advances continue arriving on 1.68× or heavier volume

Stall

Conditions neither confirm nor break down; the setup goes sideways.

  • Acceleration stays near +1.8 pts without turning decisively
  • RSI-14 oscillates around 58 without expanding
  • Price ranges between the 20 and 50-day averages rather than resolving
  • ATR compresses from its current 3.82% of price

Break

Structure deteriorates and the current read no longer applies.

  • A close below the 50-day average near 365.86
  • Relative strength versus SPY deteriorating through the current reading
  • Distribution days — declines on above-average volume
  • Drawdown extending past the current 60-day maximum of -32.52%
Signal matrix

Trend structure

Neutral

Sub-score 43 / 100

SMA 20$328.14
SMA 50$365.86
SMA 40W$401.49
Distance to 20D+10.58%
Distance to 50D-0.82%
Distance to 40W-9.62%
Averages stackedNo
Persistence (40 sessions)35%

Momentum

Accelerating

Sub-score 73 / 100

Rate of change 5D+6.02%
Rate of change 20D+15.92%
Rate of change 60D-17.60%
Acceleration+1.8 pts
RSI 14 (Wilder)58.0

Relative strength

Weak

Sub-score 63 / 100

vs SPY · 20D+12.3 pts
vs SPY · 60D-19.6 pts
vs QQQ · 20D+11.6 pts
vs QQQ · 60D-15.4 pts

Volume

Confirming

Sub-score 80 / 100

Average volume 20D35.09M
Relative volume1.68×
Latest sessionUp day

Volatility

Expanding

Sub-score 49 / 100

ATR 14$13.86
ATR as % of price3.82%
Realized vol 20D36.9%
Max drawdown 60D-32.52%

Risk and range

Elevated
52-week high$498.83
52-week low$297.38
From 52-week high-27.26%
From 52-week low+22.02%
Risk classificationElevated

The long-term trend reference is a 40-week average from the weekly series, used when the retrieved daily history is shorter than a 200-day average. Values shown as — could not be computed from the retrieved history and are not estimated.

Market regime
Risk On73 / 100
Mostly alignedMomentum risingVolatility normal
SPY+0.41%
20D change+3.63%
Above averages20 · 50 · 40W
QQQ+0.35%
20D change+4.27%
Above averages20 · 40W
IWM+0.77%
20D change+3.02%
Above averages20 · 50 · 40W
  • SPY is above its 20-day, 50-day and 40-week averages
  • Average 20-day change across indices is +3.6%
  • Index readings are mostly aligned

Research and education only. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Market data may be delayed and is not back-adjusted for splits or dividends.