swing horizon · brief

NVDA

NVIDIA

$214.72

-0.98%

ConstructiveRisk OnSession Aug 21, 2026 · retrieved Aug 22, 3:02 PM · 100 sessions

PEG Score

65/ 100

A weighted summary of agreement between six observable conditions — never a probability that price will rise.

Trend Structure93· 30% weight
Momentum43· 20% weight
Relative Strength51· 20% weight
Volume Confirmation48· 10% weight
Volatility Quality63· 10% weight
Market Regime73· 10% weight

Market terrain

CLASSIFIED

Elevation

93

Trend sub-score

Slope

0.25

20D momentum

Roughness

0.42

ATR %

Peak

0.51

Relative strength

Closing price · last 100 sessions

CALCULATED
The read
CLASSIFIED

NVDA scores 65 of 100 — constructive — with strong trend structure, positive momentum and relative strength that is in line versus SPY, in a risk on market regime.

Price sits +0.72% from its 20-day average, +3.44% from its 50-day and +10.23% from its 40-week. The averages are stacked 20 above 50 above 40-week, and price has closed above its 20-day average in 70% of the last 40 sessions. That classifies trend structure as strong.

Rate of change reads -4.64% over 5 sessions, +3.81% over 20 and +1.00% over 60. Acceleration is -5.2 pts, meaning short-term momentum is giving back its prior reading, with RSI-14 at 51. Momentum classifies as positive.

Against SPY, NVDA is +0.2 pts over 20 sessions and -1.0 pts over 60 — in line. Volume is light at 0.84× the trailing 20-session average on a down day. Volatility is orderly with ATR-14 at 2.92% of price, placing risk at moderate.

The broad tape reads Risk On — SPY is above its 20-day, 50-day and 40-week averages; average 20-day change across indices is +3.6%; index readings are mostly aligned. Regime carries 10% of the score, but it sets the context every other reading is measured in.

Generated deterministically from the values above. Set ANTHROPIC_API_KEY to have a language model write this section instead. Every statement can be checked against the Signal Matrix.

What supports the read

  • Moving averages stacked in trend order
  • Above the 40-week average by +10.23%
  • 20-day rate of change +3.81%
  • Volatility orderly — ATR 2.92% of price
  • Broad market regime is risk on

What would weaken it

  • Momentum decelerating at -5.2 pts
  • Lagging SPY by -1.0 pts over 60 sessions
Scenario map

Each path is described by the evidence that would characterize it — not a guess about which one happens, and not ordered by likelihood.

Continuation

Structure holds and the current alignment persists.

  • Moving averages remain stacked 20 above 50 above 40-week
  • Price holds above the 20-day average (+0.72% today)
  • Relative strength versus SPY stays at or above +0.2 pts
  • Advances continue arriving on 0.84× or heavier volume

Stall

Conditions neither confirm nor break down; the setup goes sideways.

  • Acceleration stays near -5.2 pts without turning decisively
  • RSI-14 oscillates around 51 without expanding
  • Price ranges between the 20 and 50-day averages rather than resolving
  • ATR compresses from its current 2.92% of price

Break

Structure deteriorates and the current read no longer applies.

  • A close below the 50-day average near 207.58
  • Relative strength versus SPY deteriorating through the current reading
  • Distribution days — declines on above-average volume
  • Drawdown extending past the current 60-day maximum of -15.31%
Signal matrix

Trend structure

Strong

Sub-score 93 / 100

SMA 20$213.18
SMA 50$207.58
SMA 40W$194.80
Distance to 20D+0.72%
Distance to 50D+3.44%
Distance to 40W+10.23%
Averages stackedYes
Persistence (40 sessions)70%

Momentum

Positive

Sub-score 43 / 100

Rate of change 5D-4.64%
Rate of change 20D+3.81%
Rate of change 60D+1.00%
Acceleration-5.2 pts
RSI 14 (Wilder)51.0

Relative strength

In line

Sub-score 51 / 100

vs SPY · 20D+0.2 pts
vs SPY · 60D-1.0 pts
vs QQQ · 20D-0.5 pts
vs QQQ · 60D+3.2 pts

Volume

Light

Sub-score 48 / 100

Average volume 20D116.58M
Relative volume0.84×
Latest sessionDown day

Volatility

Orderly

Sub-score 63 / 100

ATR 14$6.26
ATR as % of price2.92%
Realized vol 20D38.3%
Max drawdown 60D-15.31%

Risk and range

Moderate
52-week high$236.54
52-week low$164.07
From 52-week high-9.22%
From 52-week low+30.87%
Risk classificationModerate

The long-term trend reference is a 40-week average from the weekly series, used when the retrieved daily history is shorter than a 200-day average. Values shown as — could not be computed from the retrieved history and are not estimated.

Market regime
Risk On73 / 100
Mostly alignedMomentum risingVolatility normal
SPY+0.41%
20D change+3.63%
Above averages20 · 50 · 40W
QQQ+0.35%
20D change+4.27%
Above averages20 · 40W
IWM+0.77%
20D change+3.02%
Above averages20 · 50 · 40W
  • SPY is above its 20-day, 50-day and 40-week averages
  • Average 20-day change across indices is +3.6%
  • Index readings are mostly aligned

Research and education only. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Market data may be delayed and is not back-adjusted for splits or dividends.