swing horizon · brief
MSFT
Microsoft
$483.24
+0.43%
PEG Score
A weighted summary of agreement between six observable conditions — never a probability that price will rise.
Market terrain
CLASSIFIEDElevation
100
Trend sub-score
Slope
1.00
20D momentum
Roughness
0.36
ATR %
Peak
0.97
Relative strength
Closing price · last 100 sessions
CALCULATEDMSFT scores 81 of 100 — strong — with constructive trend structure, positive momentum and relative strength that is leading versus SPY, in a risk on market regime.
Price sits +2.15% from its 20-day average, +15.10% from its 50-day and +12.98% from its 40-week. The averages are not stacked in trend order, and price has closed above its 20-day average in 85% of the last 40 sessions. That classifies trend structure as constructive.
Rate of change reads -2.45% over 5 sessions, +26.60% over 20 and +17.10% over 60. Acceleration is -1.5 pts, meaning short-term momentum is giving back its prior reading, with RSI-14 at 62. Momentum classifies as positive.
Against SPY, MSFT is +23.0 pts over 20 sessions and +15.1 pts over 60 — leading. Volume is light at 0.61× the trailing 20-session average on an up day. Volatility is orderly with ATR-14 at 2.55% of price, placing risk at moderate.
The broad tape reads Risk On — SPY is above its 20-day, 50-day and 40-week averages; average 20-day change across indices is +3.6%; index readings are mostly aligned. Regime carries 10% of the score, but it sets the context every other reading is measured in.
Generated deterministically from the values above. Set ANTHROPIC_API_KEY to have a language model write this section instead. Every statement can be checked against the Signal Matrix.
What supports the read
- Above the 40-week average by +12.98%
- 20-day rate of change +26.60%
- Outperforming SPY by +15.1 pts over 60 sessions
- Volatility orderly — ATR 2.55% of price
- Broad market regime is risk on
What would weaken it
- Moving averages are not stacked in trend order
- Momentum decelerating at -1.5 pts
Each path is described by the evidence that would characterize it — not a guess about which one happens, and not ordered by likelihood.
Continuation
Structure holds and the current alignment persists.
- Price holds above the 20-day average (+2.15% today)
- Relative strength versus SPY stays at or above +23.0 pts
- Advances continue arriving on 0.61× or heavier volume
Stall
Conditions neither confirm nor break down; the setup goes sideways.
- Acceleration stays near -1.5 pts without turning decisively
- RSI-14 oscillates around 62 without expanding
- Price ranges between the 20 and 50-day averages rather than resolving
- ATR compresses from its current 2.55% of price
Break
Structure deteriorates and the current read no longer applies.
- A close below the 50-day average near 419.84
- Relative strength versus SPY deteriorating through the current reading
- Distribution days — declines on above-average volume
- Drawdown extending past the current 60-day maximum of -23.38%
Trend structure
ConstructiveSub-score 100 / 100
Momentum
PositiveSub-score 77 / 100
Relative strength
LeadingSub-score 97 / 100
Volume
LightSub-score 40 / 100
Volatility
OrderlySub-score 52 / 100
Risk and range
ModerateThe long-term trend reference is a 40-week average from the weekly series, used when the retrieved daily history is shorter than a 200-day average. Values shown as — could not be computed from the retrieved history and are not estimated.
- SPY is above its 20-day, 50-day and 40-week averages
- Average 20-day change across indices is +3.6%
- Index readings are mostly aligned
Research and education only. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Market data may be delayed and is not back-adjusted for splits or dividends.