swing horizon · brief

META

Meta Platforms

$549.90

+0.75%

WeakeningRisk OnSession Aug 21, 2026 · retrieved Aug 22, 3:02 PM · 100 sessions

PEG Score

25/ 100

A weighted summary of agreement between six observable conditions — never a probability that price will rise.

Trend Structure11· 30% weight
Momentum13· 20% weight
Relative Strength8· 20% weight
Volume Confirmation46· 10% weight
Volatility Quality52· 10% weight
Market Regime73· 10% weight

Market terrain

CLASSIFIED

Elevation

11

Trend sub-score

Slope

-0.51

20D momentum

Roughness

0.53

ATR %

Peak

0.08

Relative strength

Closing price · last 100 sessions

CALCULATED
The read
CLASSIFIED

META scores 25 of 100 — weakening — with weakening trend structure, negative momentum and relative strength that is weak versus SPY, in a risk on market regime.

Price sits -4.61% from its 20-day average, -7.27% from its 50-day and -11.58% from its 40-week. The averages are not stacked in trend order, and price has closed above its 20-day average in 38% of the last 40 sessions. That classifies trend structure as weakening.

Rate of change reads -6.77% over 5 sessions, -7.61% over 20 and -13.44% over 60. Acceleration is -6.4 pts, meaning short-term momentum is giving back its prior reading, with RSI-14 at 39. Momentum classifies as negative.

Against SPY, META is -11.2 pts over 20 sessions and -15.5 pts over 60 — weak. Volume is light at 0.80× the trailing 20-session average on an up day. Volatility is expanding with ATR-14 at 3.68% of price, placing risk at moderate.

The broad tape reads Risk On — SPY is above its 20-day, 50-day and 40-week averages; average 20-day change across indices is +3.6%; index readings are mostly aligned. Regime carries 10% of the score, but it sets the context every other reading is measured in.

Generated deterministically from the values above. Set ANTHROPIC_API_KEY to have a language model write this section instead. Every statement can be checked against the Signal Matrix.

What supports the read

  • Broad market regime is risk on

What would weaken it

  • Moving averages are not stacked in trend order
  • Below the 50-day average by -7.27%
  • Momentum decelerating at -6.4 pts
  • Lagging SPY by -15.5 pts over 60 sessions
  • -30.46% from the 52-week high
Scenario map

Each path is described by the evidence that would characterize it — not a guess about which one happens, and not ordered by likelihood.

Continuation

Structure repairs and price reclaims its shorter averages.

  • Price holds above the 20-day average (-4.61% today)
  • Relative strength versus SPY stays at or above -11.2 pts
  • Advances continue arriving on 0.80× or heavier volume

Stall

Conditions neither confirm nor break down; the setup goes sideways.

  • Acceleration stays near -6.4 pts without turning decisively
  • RSI-14 oscillates around 39 without expanding
  • Price ranges between the 20 and 50-day averages rather than resolving
  • ATR compresses from its current 3.68% of price

Break

Structure deteriorates and the current read no longer applies.

  • A close below the 50-day average near 592.99
  • Relative strength versus SPY deteriorating through the current reading
  • Distribution days — declines on above-average volume
  • Drawdown extending past the current 60-day maximum of -20.88%
Signal matrix

Trend structure

Weakening

Sub-score 11 / 100

SMA 20$576.48
SMA 50$592.99
SMA 40W$621.91
Distance to 20D-4.61%
Distance to 50D-7.27%
Distance to 40W-11.58%
Averages stackedNo
Persistence (40 sessions)38%

Momentum

Negative

Sub-score 13 / 100

Rate of change 5D-6.77%
Rate of change 20D-7.61%
Rate of change 60D-13.44%
Acceleration-6.4 pts
RSI 14 (Wilder)38.7

Relative strength

Weak

Sub-score 8 / 100

vs SPY · 20D-11.2 pts
vs SPY · 60D-15.5 pts
vs QQQ · 20D-11.9 pts
vs QQQ · 60D-11.2 pts

Volume

Light

Sub-score 46 / 100

Average volume 20D17.36M
Relative volume0.80×
Latest sessionUp day

Volatility

Expanding

Sub-score 52 / 100

ATR 14$20.26
ATR as % of price3.68%
Realized vol 20D47.1%
Max drawdown 60D-20.88%

Risk and range

Moderate
52-week high$790.80
52-week low$520.26
From 52-week high-30.46%
From 52-week low+5.70%
Risk classificationModerate

The long-term trend reference is a 40-week average from the weekly series, used when the retrieved daily history is shorter than a 200-day average. Values shown as — could not be computed from the retrieved history and are not estimated.

Market regime
Risk On73 / 100
Mostly alignedMomentum risingVolatility normal
SPY+0.41%
20D change+3.63%
Above averages20 · 50 · 40W
QQQ+0.35%
20D change+4.27%
Above averages20 · 40W
IWM+0.77%
20D change+3.02%
Above averages20 · 50 · 40W
  • SPY is above its 20-day, 50-day and 40-week averages
  • Average 20-day change across indices is +3.6%
  • Index readings are mostly aligned

Research and education only. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Market data may be delayed and is not back-adjusted for splits or dividends.