swing horizon · brief

AVGO

Broadcom

$368.45

+1.21%

MixedRisk OnSession Aug 21, 2026 · retrieved Aug 22, 4:38 PM · 100 sessions

PEG Score

42/ 100

A weighted summary of agreement between six observable conditions — never a probability that price will rise.

Trend Structure48· 30% weight
Momentum30· 20% weight
Relative Strength19· 20% weight
Volume Confirmation58· 10% weight
Volatility Quality48· 10% weight
Market Regime73· 10% weight

Market terrain

CLASSIFIED

Elevation

48

Trend sub-score

Slope

-0.24

20D momentum

Roughness

0.59

ATR %

Peak

0.19

Relative strength

Closing price · last 100 sessions

CALCULATED
The read
CLASSIFIED

AVGO scores 42 of 100 — mixed — with weakening trend structure, fading momentum and relative strength that is weak versus SPY, in a risk on market regime.

Price sits -6.97% from its 20-day average, -5.16% from its 50-day and -0.04% from its 40-week. The averages are stacked 20 above 50 above 40-week, and price has closed above its 20-day average in 55% of the last 40 sessions. That classifies trend structure as weakening.

Rate of change reads -6.24% over 5 sessions, -3.53% over 20 and -12.66% over 60. Acceleration is +1.9 pts, meaning short-term momentum is building on its prior reading, with RSI-14 at 39. Momentum classifies as fading.

Against SPY, AVGO is -7.2 pts over 20 sessions and -14.7 pts over 60 — weak. Volume is normal at 0.96× the trailing 20-session average on an up day. Volatility is expanding with ATR-14 at 4.15% of price, placing risk at elevated.

The broad tape reads Risk On — SPY is above its 20-day, 50-day and 40-week averages; average 20-day change across indices is +3.6%; index readings are mostly aligned. Regime carries 10% of the score, but it sets the context every other reading is measured in.

Generated deterministically from the values above. Set ANTHROPIC_API_KEY to have a language model write this section instead. Every statement can be checked against the Signal Matrix.

What supports the read

  • Moving averages stacked in trend order
  • Broad market regime is risk on

What would weaken it

  • Below the 50-day average by -5.16%
  • Lagging SPY by -14.7 pts over 60 sessions
  • Risk classified elevated
  • -25.57% from the 52-week high
Scenario map

Each path is described by the evidence that would characterize it — not a guess about which one happens, and not ordered by likelihood.

Continuation

Structure repairs and price reclaims its shorter averages.

  • Moving averages remain stacked 20 above 50 above 40-week
  • Price holds above the 20-day average (-6.97% today)
  • Relative strength versus SPY stays at or above -7.2 pts
  • Advances continue arriving on 0.96× or heavier volume

Stall

Conditions neither confirm nor break down; the setup goes sideways.

  • Acceleration stays near +1.9 pts without turning decisively
  • RSI-14 oscillates around 39 without expanding
  • Price ranges between the 20 and 50-day averages rather than resolving
  • ATR compresses from its current 4.15% of price

Break

Structure deteriorates and the current read no longer applies.

  • A close below the 50-day average near 388.50
  • Relative strength versus SPY deteriorating through the current reading
  • Distribution days — declines on above-average volume
  • Drawdown extending past the current 60-day maximum of -25.15%
Signal matrix

Trend structure

Weakening

Sub-score 48 / 100

SMA 20$396.06
SMA 50$388.50
SMA 40W$368.60
Distance to 20D-6.97%
Distance to 50D-5.16%
Distance to 40W-0.04%
Averages stackedYes
Persistence (40 sessions)55%

Momentum

Fading

Sub-score 30 / 100

Rate of change 5D-6.24%
Rate of change 20D-3.53%
Rate of change 60D-12.66%
Acceleration+1.9 pts
RSI 14 (Wilder)38.7

Relative strength

Weak

Sub-score 19 / 100

vs SPY · 20D-7.2 pts
vs SPY · 60D-14.7 pts
vs QQQ · 20D-7.8 pts
vs QQQ · 60D-10.5 pts

Volume

Normal

Sub-score 58 / 100

Average volume 20D19.93M
Relative volume0.96×
Latest sessionUp day

Volatility

Expanding

Sub-score 48 / 100

ATR 14$15.28
ATR as % of price4.15%
Realized vol 20D44.6%
Max drawdown 60D-25.15%

Risk and range

Elevated
52-week high$495.00
52-week low$287.17
From 52-week high-25.57%
From 52-week low+28.30%
Risk classificationElevated

The long-term trend reference is a 40-week average from the weekly series, used when the retrieved daily history is shorter than a 200-day average. Values shown as — could not be computed from the retrieved history and are not estimated.

Market regime
Risk On73 / 100
Mostly alignedMomentum risingVolatility normal
SPY+0.41%
20D change+3.63%
Above averages20 · 50 · 40W
QQQ+0.35%
20D change+4.27%
Above averages20 · 40W
IWM+0.77%
20D change+3.02%
Above averages20 · 50 · 40W
  • SPY is above its 20-day, 50-day and 40-week averages
  • Average 20-day change across indices is +3.6%
  • Index readings are mostly aligned

Research and education only. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Market data may be delayed and is not back-adjusted for splits or dividends.