swing horizon · brief

AMZN

Amazon

$258.63

-0.57%

StrongRisk OnSession Aug 21, 2026 · retrieved Aug 22, 3:02 PM · 100 sessions

PEG Score

71/ 100

A weighted summary of agreement between six observable conditions — never a probability that price will rise.

Trend Structure92· 30% weight
Momentum65· 20% weight
Relative Strength64· 20% weight
Volume Confirmation45· 10% weight
Volatility Quality53· 10% weight
Market Regime73· 10% weight

Market terrain

CLASSIFIED

Elevation

92

Trend sub-score

Slope

0.76

20D momentum

Roughness

0.41

ATR %

Peak

0.64

Relative strength

Closing price · last 100 sessions

CALCULATED
The read
CLASSIFIED

AMZN scores 71 of 100 — strong — with constructive trend structure, accelerating momentum and relative strength that is lagging versus SPY, in a risk on market regime.

Price sits -1.05% from its 20-day average, +3.56% from its 50-day and +8.70% from its 40-week. The averages are stacked 20 above 50 above 40-week, and price has closed above its 20-day average in 75% of the last 40 sessions. That classifies trend structure as constructive.

Rate of change reads -1.53% over 5 sessions, +11.43% over 20 and -4.86% over 60. Acceleration is +2.8 pts, meaning short-term momentum is building on its prior reading, with RSI-14 at 50. Momentum classifies as accelerating.

Against SPY, AMZN is +7.8 pts over 20 sessions and -6.9 pts over 60 — lagging. Volume is light at 0.75× the trailing 20-session average on a down day. Volatility is orderly with ATR-14 at 2.89% of price, placing risk at moderate.

The broad tape reads Risk On — SPY is above its 20-day, 50-day and 40-week averages; average 20-day change across indices is +3.6%; index readings are mostly aligned. Regime carries 10% of the score, but it sets the context every other reading is measured in.

Generated deterministically from the values above. Set ANTHROPIC_API_KEY to have a language model write this section instead. Every statement can be checked against the Signal Matrix.

What supports the read

  • Moving averages stacked in trend order
  • Above the 40-week average by +8.70%
  • 20-day rate of change +11.43%
  • Volatility orderly — ATR 2.89% of price
  • Broad market regime is risk on

What would weaken it

  • Lagging SPY by -6.9 pts over 60 sessions
Scenario map

Each path is described by the evidence that would characterize it — not a guess about which one happens, and not ordered by likelihood.

Continuation

Structure holds and the current alignment persists.

  • Moving averages remain stacked 20 above 50 above 40-week
  • Price holds above the 20-day average (-1.05% today)
  • Relative strength versus SPY stays at or above +7.8 pts
  • Advances continue arriving on 0.75× or heavier volume

Stall

Conditions neither confirm nor break down; the setup goes sideways.

  • Acceleration stays near +2.8 pts without turning decisively
  • RSI-14 oscillates around 50 without expanding
  • Price ranges between the 20 and 50-day averages rather than resolving
  • ATR compresses from its current 2.89% of price

Break

Structure deteriorates and the current read no longer applies.

  • A close below the 50-day average near 249.73
  • Relative strength versus SPY deteriorating through the current reading
  • Distribution days — declines on above-average volume
  • Drawdown extending past the current 60-day maximum of -17.28%
Signal matrix

Trend structure

Constructive

Sub-score 92 / 100

SMA 20$261.38
SMA 50$249.73
SMA 40W$237.92
Distance to 20D-1.05%
Distance to 50D+3.56%
Distance to 40W+8.70%
Averages stackedYes
Persistence (40 sessions)75%

Momentum

Accelerating

Sub-score 65 / 100

Rate of change 5D-1.53%
Rate of change 20D+11.43%
Rate of change 60D-4.86%
Acceleration+2.8 pts
RSI 14 (Wilder)49.8

Relative strength

Lagging

Sub-score 64 / 100

vs SPY · 20D+7.8 pts
vs SPY · 60D-6.9 pts
vs QQQ · 20D+7.2 pts
vs QQQ · 60D-2.7 pts

Volume

Light

Sub-score 45 / 100

Average volume 20D47.98M
Relative volume0.75×
Latest sessionDown day

Volatility

Orderly

Sub-score 53 / 100

ATR 14$7.48
ATR as % of price2.89%
Realized vol 20D59.6%
Max drawdown 60D-17.28%

Risk and range

Moderate
52-week high$287.20
52-week low$196.00
From 52-week high-9.95%
From 52-week low+31.95%
Risk classificationModerate

The long-term trend reference is a 40-week average from the weekly series, used when the retrieved daily history is shorter than a 200-day average. Values shown as — could not be computed from the retrieved history and are not estimated.

Market regime
Risk On73 / 100
Mostly alignedMomentum risingVolatility normal
SPY+0.41%
20D change+3.63%
Above averages20 · 50 · 40W
QQQ+0.35%
20D change+4.27%
Above averages20 · 40W
IWM+0.77%
20D change+3.02%
Above averages20 · 50 · 40W
  • SPY is above its 20-day, 50-day and 40-week averages
  • Average 20-day change across indices is +3.6%
  • Index readings are mostly aligned

Research and education only. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Market data may be delayed and is not back-adjusted for splits or dividends.