swing horizon · brief

AMD

Advanced Micro Devices

$473.25

+0.81%

WeakeningRisk OnSession Aug 21, 2026 · retrieved Aug 22, 3:44 PM · 100 sessions

PEG Score

33/ 100

A weighted summary of agreement between six observable conditions — never a probability that price will rise.

Trend Structure45· 30% weight
Momentum14· 20% weight
Relative Strength15· 20% weight
Volume Confirmation37· 10% weight
Volatility Quality27· 10% weight
Market Regime73· 10% weight

Market terrain

CLASSIFIED

Elevation

45

Trend sub-score

Slope

-0.62

20D momentum

Roughness

0.86

ATR %

Peak

0.15

Relative strength

Closing price · last 100 sessions

CALCULATED
The read
CLASSIFIED

AMD scores 33 of 100 — weakening — with neutral trend structure, negative momentum and relative strength that is lagging versus SPY, in a risk on market regime.

Price sits -1.63% from its 20-day average, -7.25% from its 50-day and +40.97% from its 40-week. The averages are not stacked in trend order, and price has closed above its 20-day average in 40% of the last 40 sessions. That classifies trend structure as neutral.

Rate of change reads -8.00% over 5 sessions, -9.33% over 20 and -4.50% over 60. Acceleration is -14.4 pts, meaning short-term momentum is giving back its prior reading, with RSI-14 at 46. Momentum classifies as negative.

Against SPY, AMD is -13.0 pts over 20 sessions and -6.5 pts over 60 — lagging. Volume is light at 0.53× the trailing 20-session average on an up day. Volatility is disorderly with ATR-14 at 6.00% of price, placing risk at elevated.

The broad tape reads Risk On — SPY is above its 20-day, 50-day and 40-week averages; average 20-day change across indices is +3.6%; index readings are mostly aligned. Regime carries 10% of the score, but it sets the context every other reading is measured in.

Generated deterministically from the values above. Set ANTHROPIC_API_KEY to have a language model write this section instead. Every statement can be checked against the Signal Matrix.

What supports the read

  • Above the 40-week average by +40.97%
  • Broad market regime is risk on

What would weaken it

  • Moving averages are not stacked in trend order
  • Below the 50-day average by -7.25%
  • Momentum decelerating at -14.4 pts
  • Lagging SPY by -6.5 pts over 60 sessions
  • Risk classified elevated
  • -19.07% from the 52-week high
Scenario map

Each path is described by the evidence that would characterize it — not a guess about which one happens, and not ordered by likelihood.

Continuation

Structure repairs and price reclaims its shorter averages.

  • Price holds above the 20-day average (-1.63% today)
  • Relative strength versus SPY stays at or above -13.0 pts
  • Advances continue arriving on 0.53× or heavier volume

Stall

Conditions neither confirm nor break down; the setup goes sideways.

  • Acceleration stays near -14.4 pts without turning decisively
  • RSI-14 oscillates around 46 without expanding
  • Price ranges between the 20 and 50-day averages rather than resolving
  • ATR compresses from its current 6.00% of price

Break

Structure deteriorates and the current read no longer applies.

  • A close below the 50-day average near 510.23
  • Relative strength versus SPY deteriorating through the current reading
  • Distribution days — declines on above-average volume
  • Drawdown extending past the current 60-day maximum of -26.05%
Signal matrix

Trend structure

Neutral

Sub-score 45 / 100

SMA 20$481.12
SMA 50$510.23
SMA 40W$335.71
Distance to 20D-1.63%
Distance to 50D-7.25%
Distance to 40W+40.97%
Averages stackedNo
Persistence (40 sessions)40%

Momentum

Negative

Sub-score 14 / 100

Rate of change 5D-8.00%
Rate of change 20D-9.33%
Rate of change 60D-4.50%
Acceleration-14.4 pts
RSI 14 (Wilder)45.8

Relative strength

Lagging

Sub-score 15 / 100

vs SPY · 20D-13.0 pts
vs SPY · 60D-6.5 pts
vs QQQ · 20D-13.6 pts
vs QQQ · 60D-2.3 pts

Volume

Light

Sub-score 37 / 100

Average volume 20D26.55M
Relative volume0.53×
Latest sessionUp day

Volatility

Disorderly

Sub-score 27 / 100

ATR 14$28.40
ATR as % of price6.00%
Realized vol 20D79.5%
Max drawdown 60D-26.05%

Risk and range

Elevated
52-week high$584.73
52-week low$149.22
From 52-week high-19.07%
From 52-week low+217.15%
Risk classificationElevated

The long-term trend reference is a 40-week average from the weekly series, used when the retrieved daily history is shorter than a 200-day average. Values shown as — could not be computed from the retrieved history and are not estimated.

Market regime
Risk On73 / 100
Mostly alignedMomentum risingVolatility normal
SPY+0.41%
20D change+3.63%
Above averages20 · 50 · 40W
QQQ+0.35%
20D change+4.27%
Above averages20 · 40W
IWM+0.77%
20D change+3.02%
Above averages20 · 50 · 40W
  • SPY is above its 20-day, 50-day and 40-week averages
  • Average 20-day change across indices is +3.6%
  • Index readings are mostly aligned

Research and education only. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Market data may be delayed and is not back-adjusted for splits or dividends.