swing horizon · brief
AAPL
Apple
$309.35
-0.63%
PEG Score
A weighted summary of agreement between six observable conditions — never a probability that price will rise.
Market terrain
CLASSIFIEDElevation
77
Trend sub-score
Slope
-0.47
20D momentum
Roughness
0.35
ATR %
Peak
0.22
Relative strength
Closing price · last 100 sessions
CALCULATEDAAPL scores 55 of 100 — constructive — with neutral trend structure, negative momentum and relative strength that is lagging versus SPY, in a risk on market regime.
Price sits -1.59% from its 20-day average, -0.28% from its 50-day and +9.74% from its 40-week. The averages are stacked 20 above 50 above 40-week, and price has closed above its 20-day average in 53% of the last 40 sessions. That classifies trend structure as neutral.
Rate of change reads +1.12% over 5 sessions, -7.11% over 20 and -0.48% over 60. Acceleration is +3.5 pts, meaning short-term momentum is building on its prior reading, with RSI-14 at 47. Momentum classifies as negative.
Against SPY, AAPL is -10.7 pts over 20 sessions and -2.5 pts over 60 — lagging. Volume is normal at 0.88× the trailing 20-session average on a down day. Volatility is orderly with ATR-14 at 2.47% of price, placing risk at low.
The broad tape reads Risk On — SPY is above its 20-day, 50-day and 40-week averages; average 20-day change across indices is +3.6%; index readings are mostly aligned. Regime carries 10% of the score, but it sets the context every other reading is measured in.
Generated deterministically from the values above. Set ANTHROPIC_API_KEY to have a language model write this section instead. Every statement can be checked against the Signal Matrix.
What supports the read
- Moving averages stacked in trend order
- Above the 40-week average by +9.74%
- Volatility orderly — ATR 2.47% of price
- Broad market regime is risk on
What would weaken it
- Below the 50-day average by -0.28%
- Lagging SPY by -2.5 pts over 60 sessions
Each path is described by the evidence that would characterize it — not a guess about which one happens, and not ordered by likelihood.
Continuation
Structure repairs and price reclaims its shorter averages.
- Moving averages remain stacked 20 above 50 above 40-week
- Price holds above the 20-day average (-1.59% today)
- Relative strength versus SPY stays at or above -10.7 pts
- Advances continue arriving on 0.88× or heavier volume
Stall
Conditions neither confirm nor break down; the setup goes sideways.
- Acceleration stays near +3.5 pts without turning decisively
- RSI-14 oscillates around 47 without expanding
- Price ranges between the 20 and 50-day averages rather than resolving
- ATR compresses from its current 2.47% of price
Break
Structure deteriorates and the current read no longer applies.
- A close below the 50-day average near 310.21
- Relative strength versus SPY deteriorating through the current reading
- Distribution days — declines on above-average volume
- Drawdown extending past the current 60-day maximum of -12.71%
Trend structure
NeutralSub-score 77 / 100
Momentum
NegativeSub-score 45 / 100
Relative strength
LaggingSub-score 22 / 100
Volume
NormalSub-score 46 / 100
Volatility
OrderlySub-score 69 / 100
Risk and range
LowThe long-term trend reference is a 40-week average from the weekly series, used when the retrieved daily history is shorter than a 200-day average. Values shown as — could not be computed from the retrieved history and are not estimated.
- SPY is above its 20-day, 50-day and 40-week averages
- Average 20-day change across indices is +3.6%
- Index readings are mostly aligned
Research and education only. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Market data may be delayed and is not back-adjusted for splits or dividends.